Energy Market Scan - July 29th 2022

Russia further distances itself from the dollar.

Posted on Jul 29, 2022 by Prakash Kini (PK)

Geopolitics and War 

Russia further distances itself from the dollar

Russia Distances Itself From The US Dollar Further As It Moves To Trade Oil With India Using The UAE's Local Currency. 

The European Union has become the primary importer of US oil

The EU has become the primary importer of US oil, given the sanctions against Russian oil. This creates a different kind of dependency. 

According to the data reported by Bloomberg, Europe imported approximately 213.1 million barrels of crude from January to May of this year. For the first time since 2016, the region surpassed Asia as the largest US oil importer during the same five-month period. According to data, Asia got only 191.1 million barrels from the United States at the time. 

Joe Biden is pushing the OPEC countries to increase oil supply 

Joe Biden pushes OPEC countries to increase oil supply. This is coming across as quite conflicting to his own US domestic energy policies and resistance to investing in US domestic exploration and production. 

The EU is targeting an oil deal with Azerbaijan 

The EU is targeting an oil deal with Azerbaijan as the euro falls below the dollar amid rising inflation.

China's spending on Russian fuel doubles in a year 

China’s Spending on Russian Energy Jumps to $6.4 Billion in June. Total outlay is over $25 billion since the invasion of Ukraine. That’s almost double the value of the same period last year.

Global Macros 

Will the large global economies dodge the recession bullet?

The US economy seems to be tethering on the brink of recession. The US economy contracted again in the second quarter amid aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve to combat high inflation, which could fan financial market fears that the economy was already in recession. The EU and US composite PMIs in contractions while the US services PMI is also falling. 

Meanwhile, China will prioritize stabilizing employment and prices, state media reported, after its economy narrowly missed a contraction in the second quarter. 

Over in Russia, Russia's central bank slashes interest rates to below pre-invasion levels as oil and gas exports ease severity of its recession. 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) claimed that India has a chance to escape the global inflation trap.

China and India's partaking of cheap Russian oil would also be helping keep net crude oil prices and hence inflation in check for these countries.

Statistics 

Are gas and oil prices going to cause heartburn again?

this is what a Real Vision expert is asking as oil prices and gas prices have been creeping up.

Shell CEO Ben van Beurden told Bloomberg TV on Thursday that there is more upside than downside for oil prices as “demand hasn’t fully recovered yet and supply is definitely tight.” TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne shared the same view, saying oil production could not keep up with recovering demand. 

Several factors are at play here: 

  • The heat wave in the US keeps air conditioners blowing, and gas prices which had dipped to below $6/MMBtu and now back up beyond $8. 
  • The Nordstream pipeline regular maintenance is almost done, this will at the least address capacity constraints, and might improve gas supplies to the EU, unless Russia decides to cut these gas supplies. 
  • The OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on August 3 where the US is hoping for an announcement of additional supply, although analysts warned that member countries are already struggling to meet production quotas due to underinvestment in oil fields. 

Recession and further demand tightening are looming, will supply tightness weigh over these? 

Read more at: tradingeconomics.com

Notable News 

Chevron invests in Google-backed nuclear fusion group 

Chevron has invested in Google-backed nuclear fusion start-up TAE Technologies in the latest sign of the fast-growing interest in the potential of the energy technology to deliver safe zero emissions power. 

The US oil major invested in TAE alongside Google and Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation as it raised $250mn to fund the sixth generation of its fusion research reactor in California, the company said on Tuesday. 

Chevron’s investment was made by its Technology Ventures unit, which has also backed the Seattle-based fusion start-up Zap Energy.

Nuclear fusion has attracted more than $2.8 billion in new investment over the past year.

The industry is quickly gaining traction as scientists hone in on new breakthroughs. The UK is home to some of the world’s leading fusion prospects, such as Tokamak Energy and First Light Fusion, both based in Oxford. 

Weather and Climate Change 

How hot is too hot? 

Multiple regions in the world such as US, UK, Europe, Northern Africa have been inundated with heatwaves and temperatures of beyond 40 degrees centigrade. A few regions such as India have received some relief in the past weeks due to seasonal monsoon rains. 

All records for highest July temperatures have been broken.

This has directly impacted people as well as agriculture in these regions causing water scarcity, drought and a dip in hydro power. The heat has also led to much higher electricity consumption, driving gas prices back higher and causing some countries to revert to coal and nuclear fuel sources as well.

All records for highest July temperatures have been broken. This has directly impacted people as well as agriculture in these regions causing water scarcity, drought and a dip in hydro power. The heat has also led to much higher electricity consumption, driving gas prices back higher and causing some countries to revert to coal and nuclear fuel sources as well. 

Though climate change was expected, several climate scientists are shocked at the quickness of the impact. 

Several large global firms and their enterprise risk managers have failed to devise and put in place stress testing models against climate change and are suffering significant losses due to these climate risks realising. 

Several agencies on the ground are providing both citizens and organisations guidelines on how hot is too hot to work? 

Read more at: theguardian.com